When the economy goes down, does crime go up? How does economic crisis affect criminal behavior? Apparently, economists and criminologists have already debated the question for decades with no clear-cut answer.
Famous wisdom assumes that hard economic times bring a spike in crime under the theory that desperate lots of people are going to turn to crime more readily to illegal means to support themselves or out of frustration. However, statistics do not necessarily support this theory.
Does Crime Go Up When the Economy Goes Down?
Lots of researchers examining the historical correlation between United States crime and the economy, and found that crime frequently decreases during tough economic times, and will rise during economic booms. For instance, many analyses have shown that during the Great Depression, the United States’ worst economic downturn to date, overall crime rates continuously decreased after an initial surge of violent crime at the start of the period. Crime rates continuously fell even as 68 percent of Americans were at or below the poverty line in the late 1930s.
Data analyzing the Great Recession in the late 2000s, when unemployment was high and economic growth was sluggish, reveal a similar trend. The FBI Uniform Crime Reports reveal that both violent and property crimes decreased each year between 2007 and 2010–continuing a trend begun in the late 1990s.
By contrast, studies reveal that periods of economic booms will be able to have high crime rates. The 1920s was a period of great economic prosperity and very high crime. Similarly, even as the economy flourished after World War II, crime increased continuously throughout the 1950s and 1960s.
Other Points of View
However, several researchers say that these analyses only tell part of the story. Although overall crime during economic recessions tends to decrease, there is evidence that specific crimes can increase during certain periods of a financial crisis.
During the first several years of the Great Depression, crime of the violent surged. It just began to die down after 1934 once President Roosevelt initiated an anti-crime package and passed the New Deal economic programs. Similarly, at the start of the Great Recession, 44% of police agencies view a spike in robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. The offenses began to reduce, in most, however, not all places–as the Recession continued.
Some other experts believe that examining the overall crime rate is not the right measure. These experts have discovered that consumer perception of the state of the economy highly correlates with rising crime rates, mainly economically-motivated crimes such as robbery or property offenses. In other words, crime can rise when the consumers feel economic hardship, even if the general economy is doing well.
The Effect of Economic Activity on Criminal Behavior
Based on the economic theory, crime should decrease as economic growth and chance improve. That is because the incentive to engage in illegal activity decreases due to legal avenues of earning income becoming more fruitful. But there are documented cases where economic growth has led to higher crime rates. By looking at administrative level data in North Dakota, before, during, and after an economic expansion we will be able to understand the nature and characteristics of higher crime rates in newly prosperous areas.
Instead of focusing on overall crime rates, Brittany focuses on crimes committed by the residents who lived in the area before the economic expansion began. This separates local crime impacts from those made by migrant workers when measuring the effect of economic chance on individual criminal behavior.
Initially Crime Decreases During the Leasing Period
This study discovers that there is an initial 22% reduction in the number of criminal cases filed in areas affected by the fracking boom. The effects were most significant and also most consistent for drug-related crimes. This reduction occurs during the leasing period when mineral leases are signed and large-scale drilling activities have yet to begin.
The experts suggest that there are two different potential explanations for why crime rates would decrease during this initial phase. As their economic prospects improve, the residents can become more engaged with legal activities rather than illegal activities. An improved economic outlook can reduce the desire to engage in illegal activities, because the cost (either real or perceived) of apprehension increases compared to legal activity.
Several Crime Returns During The Production Period
Also, the experts discover that the initial reduction of crime among the residents diminishes after drilling activities begin and production ramps up. Aside from that, aggregate crime also increases during this period that is consistent with the findings of other studies examining overall crime rate changes in relation to fracking booms. The experts provide two potential reasons for this increase in crime; demographic changes or an increase in the number of bars and illegal markets. When the job market improves in an area, new people will move in seeking better job opportunities. The in-migration of young men in notably, a historically crime-prone group, can contribute to an overall increase in crime.
The main policy implication of this work is that the fracking boom and accompanying economic growth in North Dakota created a significant reduction in the amount of crime being committed by long-term local residents. Increases in crime rates in fracking places are a potential symptom of migratory patterns which accompany economic booms, not the direct result of fracking itself. As a result, the policymakers concerned regarding increasing crime related to economic growth must seek to understand not only aggregate impacts, but also impacts across various demographics. Understanding those differences can assist in crafting more effective public policies.
Crime and the Great Recession
When the Great Recession hit in 2008, it was widely assumed that crime rates were going to increase. It was a reasonable expectation. In general, robbery and property crime rates rise during recessions and fall during recoveries. Several evidence shows that homicide and assault rates do as well. However, the Great Recession was different. In the US and in most other developed nations hit by the recession, crime rates fell.
A bookworm and researcher especially related to law and citizenship education. I spend time every day in front of the internet and the campus library.
